Australia RBA Weighted Median CPI QoQ

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Latest Release:

Actual:

0.7%

Forecast: 0.7%

Previous/Revision:

0.6%

Period: Apr 2025

Next Release:

Forecast:

Period: Jul 2025

What Does It Measure?

The RBA Weighted Median CPI is a key indicator that measures underlying inflation in Australia by assessing price changes across the middle of the basket of goods and services. This measure, unlike the headline CPI, aims to filter out volatile price movements, providing a more stable indication of inflation trends on a national level.

Frequency

This report is released quarterly, typically towards the end of the first month following each calendar quarter, providing a more stable revision as opposed to preliminary estimates.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely watch this indicator as it provides insight into the inflationary pressure in the economy, impacting expectations for interest rate changes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Higher readings can be bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD) since they increase the likelihood of rate hikes, while lower readings can be bearish, impacting equities similarly.

What Is It Derived From?

The weighted median CPI is derived by ordering the year-over-year price changes of various items, selecting the median as the core inflation measure. This approach helps smooth out noise from volatile price changes, relying on detailed data collected from consumer prices across a wide range of goods and services.

Description

The RBA Weighted Median CPI is a crucial tool for evaluating the underlying inflation component, setting apart from headline inflation by removing extreme price movements, which tend to obscure longer-term trends. Preliminary reports capture the initial estimates based on incomplete data, often subject to revisions as more comprehensive data becomes available in final findings, where initial reactions from markets tend to be stronger and adjustments are common with final figures. This indicator is released on a quarter-over-quarter basis, making it useful for identifying repeated inflation patterns, especially given its focus on core inflation stability over sudden changes often detected in month-over-month or annual comparisons.

Additional Notes

As a lagging indicator, the weighted median CPI complements other inflation measures such as the trimmed mean, offering a nuanced view that assists the RBA in forming monetary policy. Its trends correlate not only with domestic economic conditions but also with inflationary trends in other economies, impacting trade and investment flows.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for AUD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for AUD, Bullish for Stocks. Hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates or inflation concerns, is usually good for the AUD but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 30, 2025	0.7%	0.7%	0.6%
Jan 29, 2025	0.5%	0.6%	0.9%	-0.1%
Oct 30, 2024	0.9%	0.8%	0.8%	0.1%
Jul 31, 2024	0.8%	1%	1.1%	-0.2%
Apr 24, 2024	1.1%	0.9%	0.9%	0.2%
Jan 31, 2024	0.9%	1%	1.3%	-0.1%
Oct 25, 2023	1.3%	1%	1%	0.3%
Jul 26, 2023	1%	1.1%	1.2%	-0.1%
Apr 26, 2023	1.2%	1.3%	1.6%	-0.1%
Jan 25, 2023	1.6%	1.4%	1.4%	0.2%
Oct 26, 2022	1.4%	1.5%	1.4%	-0.1%
Jul 27, 2022	1.4%	1.4%	1%
Apr 27, 2022	1%	1.1%	0.9%	-0.1%
Jan 25, 2022	0.9%	0.7%	0.7%	0.2%
Oct 27, 2021	0.7%	0.5%	0.5%	0.2%
Jul 28, 2021	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%
Apr 28, 2021	0.4%	0.5%	0.5%	-0.1%
Jan 27, 2021	0.5%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%
Oct 28, 2020	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%
Jul 29, 2020	0.1%	0.1%	0.5%
Apr 29, 2020	0.5%	0.4%	0.4%	0.1%
Jan 29, 2020	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%
Oct 30, 2019	0.3%	0.4%	0.4%	-0.1%
Jul 31, 2019	0.4%	0.4%	0.1%
Apr 24, 2019	0.1%	0.4%	0.4%	-0.3%
Jan 30, 2019	0.4%	0.5%	0.3%	-0.1%
Oct 31, 2018	0.3%	0.4%	0.5%	-0.1%
Jul 25, 2018	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Apr 24, 2018	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%
Jan 31, 2018	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%
Oct 25, 2017	0.3%	0.5%	0.5%	-0.2%
Jul 26, 2017	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%
Apr 26, 2017	0.4%	0.5%	0.4%	-0.1%
Jan 25, 2017	0.4%	0.5%	0.3%	-0.1%
Oct 26, 2016	0.3%	0.4%	0.4%	-0.1%
Jul 27, 2016	0.4%	0.4%	0.1%
Apr 27, 2016	0.1%	0.5%	0.5%	-0.4%
Jan 27, 2016	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%
Oct 28, 2015	0.3%	0.5%	0.5%	-0.2%
Jul 22, 2015	0.5%	0.5%	0.8%